9/30/16 Grain Market Update

Here are grain market comments by Kyle McCarthy:

Friday morning the USDA’s quarterly stocks report was released, with a few surprises affecting the market. Corn and soybeans both came in under the average trade estimates, while wheat came in towards the high end of the trade estimate. The markets saw corn rally 12 cents after the report and close up 7 for the day. Wheat was down again for the week, and is still struggling to break through some resistance levels as it’s competing with corn in the feed market and not getting the market share that was anticipated.

U.S. September 1 Stocks Report (billions of bushels)
  USDA Sep 1 2016 Avg Trade Est Range of Trade Est USDA June 1 2016 USDA Sep 1 2015
Corn 1.738 1.754 1.665-1.862 4.722 1.731
Soybeans 0.197 0.201 0.180-0.256 0.870 0.191
Wheat 2.527 2.397 2.115-2.558 0.981 2.097

Exports continue to be a driving force in the markets, as everywhere has seen big yields. As you can see in the chart below; corn, soybeans, and wheat are all ahead of last year’s pace and export sales are good for the marketing year.  But, the carryout is still large and wheat especially needs to find a way to export a much larger number than the USDA’s estimate to help ease the excess in supply.

Export Sales Recap (thousand tonnes)
  This Week Last Week Current Market YTD Previous Market YTD USDA Est.
Corn 575 921.9 18,543 10,514 55,247
Soybeans 1,629.9 875.7 26,113 20,600 54,024
Wheat 570.8 561 14,040 11,056 25,855

The crop report numbers from Monday were still showing 74% G/E corn and 73% G/E soybean ratings for this week. Those numbers are unchanged from last week and still ahead of 54% averages for both, still pointing to a large crop. Yields have been good so far in the numbers we’ve seen, but probably not going to hit the USDA estimate on the corn side. As the harvest keeps progressing we’ll see the market respond to the yields. As always, don’t hesitate to give us a call, 308-487-3325, with any marketing questions. For those with bushels in storage call for different marketing strategies to lower those costs and still give you a chance to price those bushels at a later date, no need to let storage take the low prices lower.

Have a great week!