Tucker Talk: March 4, 2016

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White 4-Pod at FCE

The 2016 revenue protection spring price for corn is $3.86. This is the average December futures price over the month of February.  The harvest price will be the average December futures price over the month of October.

Corn exports did better than expected last week and even though total exports are behind last years, the exports last week were higher than the same week last year.  Gulf corn offers to Asia have finally drifted low enough to be within $0.05 of offers from Argentina which will leave the US open for corn bookings.

Crude oil prices rallied today to 2-month highs but traders consider it short-covering rather than a bullish change in fundamentals.

Increased weather risk has caused a $0.20 rally in wheat over the last 3 days.  Warm temperatures have caused wheat to break dormancy 4 weeks ahead of schedule in important growing areas.  Most wheat producing areas are still under statistically high probability of a hard freeze until March 31st.  Areas such as Kansas and Oklahoma will need more moisture in order to keep the wheat going but rains are having a hard time developing.  Large rallies will be limited by increased farmer selling and moving of on-farm grain stocks.

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