Tucker Talk: October 16

Early morning out the back door at Farmer's Coop main office.

Early morning out the back door at Farmer’s Coop main office.

Corn

Harvest is marching on and was 42% done in the US on Sunday night.  Yield reports from the corn belt say yields are higher than expectations in many areas.  Storage space is becoming an issue must faster than normal this year due to a larger than expected soybean crop and the large amount of 2014 corn still in storage.  This could have an impact on basis values later in the season.

Analysts are concerned with the level of corn demand this year as they look at the lagging export numbers.  The US historically exports approximately 15% of its corn and even though domestic demand is expected to be higher, it can’t hope to offset the reduced export demand.  The US Dollar is still strong vs Brazilian and Argentina currencies.  Brazil is currently offering corn at a price $0.35 less than the US.  This difference is so large that it is becoming more cost effective to import Brazilian corn into the Southeast US feed market than pay for US corn.

Farmer’s Coop has been receiving dryland and hail damaged corn as producers try to fill the time when they can’t harvest sugar beets.  Moisture has been averaging about 17% and test weights have been low due to the large amount of hail damaged corn being received.  Irrigated corn moisture tests have been coming in 20%-25% moisture.  Preliminary dryland sunflower moisture tests have been around 10%.

Wheat

Wheat prices fell through some technical support on the charts on Wednesday which spurred more selling and led to drops further below other technical support levels on Thursday and Friday aided by the release of the seasonal drought outlook.  Wetter forecasts relieve drought concerns and put pressure on prices.  The drought outlook showed a much improved long-term outlook for drought areas in Texas, Southern Oklahoma, and Arkansas.  This area accounts for approximately 15% of the wheat crop.

Areas around Texas and Southern Oklahoma expected to see some moisture improvements.

Areas around Texas and Southern Oklahoma expected to see some moisture improvements.

Weather is the main player in the wheat market as producers try to get their Hard Red Winter wheat crops planted.  Analysts are debating yields for the coming year and whether or not the current El Nino trend will turn into La Nina.  In the past, strong El Nino patterns have transitioned into La Nina patterns in the spring and have resulted in droughts.

Corn Harvest Weekend Numbers

Hemingford/Mirage Flats: Bart Moseman 308-760-8693
New Alliance: Scott Sterkel 308-430-2651
Hay Springs: Jared Peterson 308-360-1312
Gordon: Brenda Jackson 308-225-3722
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